January is quickly coming to a close and it’s time for me to get serious about preparing for my upcoming hike of the Arizona Trail (AZT). My first order of business is picking a date for when I want to begin the trail.
I’ve been wavering back and forth on when I should head down to the southern terminus. Based on every resource I’ve read (including the official ATZ guidebook from the Arizona Trail Association), most hikers begin their northbound (NOBO) hikes at the Arizona-Mexico border sometime in late winter or early spring. That’s when the seasonal springs and streams are generally still flowing, and before the summer heat.
But what timeframe is “late winter or early spring” exactly? Is February too early? What about March? Or should I wait until sometime April to begin? I’d like to have a mark on the wall that will help me focus on the most ideal window to start, but I know that’s a fool’s errand.
In reality, the best date to begin this trail varies from year to year. Each new hiking season, AZT hiker have to balance four conflicting concerns: (1) water availability; (2) snowpack; (3) daytime heat; (4) and personal considerations.
Water
Let’s start with the most obvious consideration. Water.
It might be an understatement to say the Arizona desert is dry and arid. If you’ve hiked any distance in the desert Southwest – whether it’s on the the AZT or southern sections of the PCT or CDT – you know water is always a major concern.
Some areas will have springs flowing from the ground, but other places along the trail have nothing but disgusting cow ponds to choose from for 20+ miles. Hikers who begin the AZT too late, may even find these sparse water sources completely dried up.
According to NASA, spring of 2022 is predicted to be another La Niña year in the Northern Hemisphere. That weather pattern usually means drier-than-normal conditions in the desert Southwest.
So, the drier water situation has me leaning toward an early start date.
Snow
Most tourists don’t associate Arizona with snow, but it’s a surprisingly mountainous state with 194 named mountain ranges. The northern part of the state, sits on the Colorado Plateau between 6,000′ and 9,000′ in elevation.
Hikers who start the AZT too early (especially in a higher snow year), might find themselves wading though thigh-deep snow with no trail to follow as they head further north.
I’ve been glued the USDA’s SNOTEL reports trying to figure out how much now Arizona is getting this winter. And as of this week, the San Francisco Mountains (near Flagstaff) are currently experiencing 140% of their average snowpack, and the Verde River Basin just to the south is around 105%.
How long that snow is likely stick around is anyone guess. Plus it’s still early in the season. There may still be plenty of snow to come. I remember watching Julia “Rocket” Sheehan’s YouTube videos of her 2021 ATZ thru-hike last year, and cringing as I watched her the repeatedly return back to town thanks to super snowy trail conditions in the Mazatzals and Mogollon Rim.
So, concerns over the current snow situation in Arizona definitely has me leaning toward a later start date.
Heat
Of course, there’s also the heat and cold to consider.
The desert temperatures are known to fluctuate to wild extremes in Arizona. Generally, the earlier in the season that you begin your hike, the more freezing nights you’ll endure in the desert and mountains. But wait too late, and you’re flirting with intense 90°F heat.
Hikers often carry a sun umbrella on the AZT to create sufficient shade because the trail is far more exposed than most wilderness hikes. Much of the flora is too sparse or too prickly to provide any meaningful shelter from the sun. And some hikers simply opt to stop and take a siesta during the hottest part of the day to avoid sunburn, heat injuries, and to conserve water.
As someone who suffered from episodes of heat exhaustion on both the Camino and the Appalachian Trail, I know I’m more susceptible to a repeat heat injury if I’m not extremely careful.
Avoiding the worst of the Arizona heat has me definitely eyeing an earlier start date.
Personal Factors
Finally there are all the personalized considerations to ask yourself when picking a start date. For example:
Mileage. How far do you expect to hike each day? Are you going to slowly ease into that mileage? Or will you race out the gate with big miles from the start? Will that mileage put you into the snow too soon, or conversely, leave you in the heat too late?
Obligations. What off-trail obligations are shaping your timeline? Is there a particular date you cannot start before? Or is there a pre-ordained day you must be finished by? Do you have a limit on how many total days you can be on trail before you run out of vacation days? And how many days can you reasonably spend away from personal and/or work life?
The Bubble. How social of a hike do you want? The AZT isn’t as popular as some other long-distance trails, yet choosing a more popular start date might put you in a ‘bubble’ of other hikers. For some people, the proximity to other hikers can be very comforting and enhances their journey. On the flip side, it might also mean there’s greater competition for limited resources in town – like hotels or the laundry.
Travel. How are you planning to get to the trail? Are you planning to fly to Arizona? Or will you need several days to drive there? How do you plan to get down to the southern terminus? Are you willing to pay for a private shuttle? Or do you plan to coordinate with other hikers to split a shuttle to the trailhead, rely on a helpful trail angel, or hitchhike?
Decision Time
After considering all these factors, I took a major step toward deciding on my start date this week. I purchased a one-way ticket to Tucson. I’m hoping to find my way to the trailhead sometime in the first week of March.
I know that start date places me on the early end of the spectrum of AZT hikers. I could be risking some snow delays or impassible trail conditions. But if that occurs, I figure I can always take some extra zeros in one of the gateway communities along the AZT and wait it out.
Trying to hike too hot conditions are a greater personal concern to me than the potential for snow or sleet. I’d rather weigh my pack down with some extra layers for the cold than risk another heat injury in the remote wilderness without enough shade or water to treat it.
So there you have it. Now on to obsessing about my resupply plan…